3.2.1 Risk assessment under the OSPAR Convention

The FRAM of the OSPAR guidelines (2007) recommends that the risk assessment is undertaken during the entire life cycle of a CO2 storage project. The FRAM includes six stages covering the life cycle of a CO2 storage site, and the risk characterisation is one of these stages:

  • Problem formulation,
  • Site selection and characterisation,
  • Exposure assessment,
  • Effects assessment,
  • Risk characterisation,
  • Risk management (including monitoring and mitigation).

During the problem formulation stage, data, including geoscientific data, is collected for use in the conceptual modelling of the storage site. The results from the modelling will be used later on in the site-specific risk assessment. Issues that are addressed during this first stage include a) the suitability of the proposed formation as a CO2 storage site, b) the nature of overlying bedrock c) the potential mobilisation of substances directly or indirectly connected to the CO2 stream, d) the characteristics of the marine environment above and around the storage site and e) records associated with the authorisation and licensing of a geological storage of CO2 which need to be maintained during a longer period of time than is usual in authorised practises.

The outcome of the site selection and characterisation process will be an assessment of the storage capacity of a specific storage site. It should demonstrate that the characteristics of the site enable safe long-term storage of CO2 so the marine environment and future uses of the maritime area are protected. The results should also establish a baseline for storage site management and monitoring during the injection and post-injection period. In the Appendix 1 of Annex 1 (a summary is presented in Table 3-1), the issues that may be considered during in the risk assessment and management process are specified. The guidelines also provide examples of the relevant parameters that should be identified, qualified and quantified in the risk assessment process. Many of these parameters are collected during the site selection and characterisation process.

Tab. 3-1: A summary of Appendix 1, OSPAR Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Management of Storage of CO2 streams in Geological Formation reference number 2007-12 (after OSPAR, 2007).

Issue

Examples of parameters

Characterisation of the CO2 stream

Type and properties of other substances

Concentration of other substances

Location and geographical factors

Water depth

Formation depth

Human health and safety

Existence of amenities, biological features, and legitimate uses of the maritime area

Areas of special ecological, economical and scientific importance

Regional geological setting

Regional geoscientific information

Historical uses of the area

Man-made structures, e.g. wells

Reservoir/seal evaluation

Geological, geophysical, geochemical and geomechanical characteristics of the reservoir and seal.

Marine environment characterisation

Ocean current, sea floor topology

Physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the seabed, sediments and overlying waters.

Economic/regulatory factors

Economic feasibility including impact on other sea-bed resources

Regulatory framework

The exposure assessment characterises the potential effects of leakage on the marine environment, human health and other legitimate uses of the maritime area. This additional information can be used in the wider risk assessment and risk mitigation process.

The assessment of the effects of CO2 storage describes the expected consequences of storage at a specific site. A prerequisite for storage is that no significant leakage will occur, however, the effects assessment should demonstrate that, if leakage from a storage site should occur, there is no significant harmful consequence to the marine environment, human health and other legitimate uses of the maritime area.

The outcome of the risk characterisation is an "Impact Hypothesis". It is a statement describing the expected consequences of geological storage of CO2, which can be used to reject or approve a proposed storage site and to define monitoring requirements from an environmental point of view.

The purpose of the risk management plan is to ensure that geologically stored CO2 is retained within the storage site and to minimise the effects of possible leakage events including of incidental associated substances and substances that have been mobilised by the CO2 stream.